Childhood questions became lifelong quests
Dinosaursâ demise, Martian environment and Earthâs climate fascinated Brian Toon as a kid, captivated him as a scientist, and propelled him to a wide-ranging research career marked by a common theme: tiny airborne particles
Since he was a kid, Owen Brian Toon has puzzled over âweird problemsâ: What killed the dinosaurs? Whatâs Mars like? What causes Earthâs climate to change?
Early on, he had another question: Is there really a Yeti? âWhen I was 10 years old, that was a big problem,â says Toon, now a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado.
The alleged Yeti, or âabominable snowman,â was debunked decades ago. âThis is a problem solved everywhere, except on television programs shown regularly to our children and falsely advertized as science or history.â
But Toon has spent much of his professional life studyingâand broadening knowledge ofâthe other three problems. His years of research on these topics have earned him the 2011 Roger Revelle Medal from the American Geophysical Union.
That distinction is bestowed on one person a year by the 60,000-member organization âfor outstanding contributions in atmospheric sciences, atmosphere-ocean coupling, atmosphere-land coupling, biogeochemical cycles, climate or related aspects of the Earth system.â
By studying Mars and Venus, Toon and other scientists gained greater insight into the climate of the Earth. The greenhouse effectâthat gases such as carbon dioxide trap heat in a planetâs atmosphereâhas been known for more than a century. But manmade greenhouse gases arenât the whole story, Toon notes.
Venus, which has atmospheric CO2Ěýconcentrations 100,000 times higher than that of Earth, is âhotter than a self-cleaning oven,â Toon observes. But while Marsâ atmospheric CO2Ěýconcentration is about 20 times higher than Earthâs, Mars is colder than Antarctica.
âIt isnât just the distant location of Mars from the sun that makes it cold, either,â says Toon, because Venus uses little more sunlight than Mars does. âRather, it is the way that water vapor and carbon dioxide have evolved over geologic history.Ěý It is low water vapor that makes Mars so cold today. Possibly giant impacts warmed Mars in the distant past by injecting lots of water into the Martian atmosphere.â
Aerosols are implicated in the demise of the dinosaurs, which are thought to have been wiped out by the effects of a gigantic asteroid that slammed into Earth 65 million years ago. âI was thinking, how could asteroids kill dinosaurs? ⌠You have these microscopic particles killing the largest carnivores on the planet.â
Toon and others suggest that searing heat from the re-entry of the impact debris âbasically broiled the dinosaurs alive.â Widespread fires then released a thick blanket of soot that blocked sunlight, cooled the planet and halted photosynthesis. Mass extinction followed.
Studying the effects of an asteroid impact led Toon and others to the study of the worldwide effects of nuclear war: That work concluded that most of the worldâs humans would be killed by widespread nuclear war.
Toon is a top authority on the aftermath of nuclear war. The term ânuclear winterâ stems from a landmark paper published in Science in 1983 and written by R.P. Turco, Toon, T.P. Ackerman, as well as the late J.B. Pollack Ěýand Carl Sagan.
âNuclear winterâ denotes a worldwide drop in temperatures due to the dust and soot from firestorms that would block sunlight after nuclear war.
The 1983 nuclear-winter study assumed a war involving 5,000 megatons of explosionsâabout 2,500 times the explosive power of all the bombs detonated in World War II.
In recent years, Toon has led or contributed to several studies showing that even a âlimited nuclear warââinvolving an iota of the firepower studied previouslyâwould devastate the stratospheric ozone layer and plunge the world into devastating frigidity. Global average temperatures would be colder than any seen in the last thousand years.
In 2006, Toon helped lead two studies that found that even a small-scale nuclear warâone involving 100 15-kiloton explosionsâcould slaughter as many people as were killed during World War II and disrupt the worldâs climate (and food production) for a decade.
Toon noted that nations such as Pakistan and India have the capacity to detonate 50 nuclear bombs, each having 15 kilotons of explosive powerâthe power of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
In 2007, Toon, Rich Turco of UCLA, Alan Robock of Rutgers University and others published a paper in Science emphasizing the devastation that could follow a âlimited,â or regional, nuclear war involving 100 15-kiloton bombs. Such a war would involve a trivial portion of the worldâs nuclear arsenal: less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the worldâs nukes.
Besides the immediate casualties, Toon and his colleagues found, such a war would cause massive fires that could propel 1 million to 5 million tons of soot into the high atmosphere.
World political leaders arenât paying sufficient attention to nuclear proliferation, Toon says. âThey think that if India and Pakistan had a war, âThat wonât affect us.ââ
Toon and Robock summarized this work in a Scientific American article published last year. They made a forceful case for disarmament: âRapid reduction of the American and Russian arsenals would set an example for the rest of the world that nuclear weapons cannot be used and are not needed.â
Toonâs research has also helped explain another global threat: the destruction of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica. He correctly predicted that polar stratospheric clouds containing nitric and hydrochloric acid form in the Antarctic stratosphere in winter. He also predicted that the polar stratospheric clouds would catalyze chemical reactions that produce reactive chlorine, which destroys stratospheric ozone.
âSusan Solomon suggested some ozone-destroying reactions that might occur. I showed why they would occur. Maggie Tolbert and Mario Molina showed they did occur in the lab, and I helped lead aircraft expeditions that showed they did occur in nature.â
âThereâs a theme here of particles,â Toon observes, noting that this theme underlies much of his research.
As Toon notes, aerosols are of many types and exhibit more complex behaviors than do greenhouse gases.
âC°ż2, once you say its name and measure it in one place, you know almost everything you need to know about it,â Toon says. 91´óťĆŃź 20 percent of the carbon dioxide you emit driving home today will linger in the atmosphere thousands of years. The slow rate of change makes CO2Ěýeasier to understand.
But aerosols emitted in the last week are offsetting the climate effects of much of the greenhouse gases so far emitted, Toon adds.
Further, aerosols can have cooling or warming effects. Aerosols interact with about 10 percent of all the Sunâs energy, reflecting much of that back into space. Most particles, dust or sea salt or sulfates, can scatter sunlight, blunting the warming effect of sunlight.
Dark particles, such as diesel soot or forest-fire smoke, can absorb sunlight and have a warming effect, or they can fall on snow, reducing surface reflectivity and making snow melt faster.
Aerosols can also be deadly. 91´óťĆŃź 30,000 Americans die each year from ailments traced to airborne particulates. Coal-fired power plants are a major source of this morbidity.
While thereâs much left to learn, Toon notes âa growing anti-science movementâ in America. In public-opinion surveys, more than 40 percent of the U.S. population reported believing the Earth is about 6,000 years old (rather than its actual age of 4.5 billion years).
Toon asks: âWhat does this say about science education? What does this say about our ability to communicate the facts of science?â
Noting that there is a âhuge science-education problem in the United States,â Toon says the solution is not straightforward. âItâs not just information transfer. Itâs resistance to knowing the information, and confusion produced by the entertainment industry and others often in the name of science or news.â
Thereâs also a view that facts are open to interpretation. âFacts are not open to interpretation. Facts are facts.â
Toon earned his Ph.D. in physics from Cornell University in 1975 with Professor Carl Sagan. He became a NASA research scientist in 1978 and joined the CU faculty in 1997. He has been elected a fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Association. He is recognized by ISI Thompson Scientific as one of the most highly cited and influential geosciences researchers.
Additionally, he was recognized by the United Nationsâ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for significant contributions to the body of work honored by the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
As for the Roger Revelle Medal, which he will receive in San Francisco in December, Toon notes, âItâs nice to have your colleagues say youâve done some interesting things.â
âThis award recognizes students and post-docs and all my collaborators,â he adds. âIâm having a fun time exploring all these topics, and theyâre doing all the work.â
Plus, âIâm still working on the same problems that I was trying to understand when I was 10.â
Except, of course, the Yeti.